Uncertainty

Political, policy, economic and trade uncertainty will continue until UK reaches future agreements with the EU and other countries and implements such new legal and regulatory regimes as considered appropriate. This is likely to impact business planning for 2-10 years.

Investment and FDI

Investment (internal and inward) may be deferred due to uncertainty, withdrawal from the EU single market and potential short term economic contraction, restricting liquidity. When arrangement become clearer a wave of investment may be released.

Market Economic

A short term economic contraction (recession) and falls (and volatility) in UK stock markets following Brexit may affect sales and business confidence and investment.

Currency fluctuation/reliability

The pound is likely to be volatile and (in the short term) may fall substantially. This may make exports more attractive (subject to additional tariffs and administrative and regulatory effects) but cause inflation and increased costs of imports (in addition to tariff, administrative and regulatory effects).

Skills and Staffing

Reduced EU migration (and emigration of EU citizens currently in UK) may reduce available workforce and impact skills (including knowledge-led roles). Restrictions on UK citizens working in EU may affect EU business development for UK businesses. Skills pressures are likely to be especially acute in construction, academia, agriculture and seasonal employment.

Supply chains

Existing supply chains may be disrupted. This may include additional cost (from tariffs and administrative, regulatory costs), reduced reliability (due to import/export controls) and extended timings (where border controls are necessary, just in time deliveries may be affected). New supply chains may take time to establish.

Contractor/ Supplier Solvency

Insolvencies and business restructurings are likely to spike as exposed businesses are put under greater economic pressure. This may affect supply chains, customer demand and recoveries.

Goodwill and perception

Changes to perception of the UK as a nation and place to do business will likely result in a less warm welcome in EU. In other countries there may be additional suspicion/sceptism or a welcome of an independent UK brand.

Business restructuring/relocation

Businesses may relocate to EU/ divert business to EU affiliates which is currently done in UK. This will reduce contracts available in UK. It may take time to develop alternative business from other sources.

Tax structuring

Businesses currently using EU tax structures may realign business to maintain positive corporation and sales taxes (as well as tariffs). Alternative UK bespoke tax structures may take time to develop.

Access to markets

UK businesses may be unable or restricted in bidding for or delivering EU contracts due to local or regulatory requirements.

Contracts

Existing contracts may go into dispute/ renegotiation where material change or cost involved. Enforcement in EU may become harder. Future contracts may come under pressure to be under EU law or with protections for border issues.

Information

Business access to customer data may be restricted once the UK is outside GDPR (Data Protection). Existing databases may have to be reviewed. Data exchange with non-EU countries may become less restricted.

Security

Security risks (including cyber-security) may increase due to reduced information sharing with EU members.

How will Brexit affect your business?

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