The following reflects a best available projection of likely impacts upon businesses following Brexit. It cannot be comprehensive, particularly as many aspects of Brexit remain unknown and unpredictable. However, businesses preparing for Brexit may expect some (or all) of the following:

 

Compromise Deal reached Current withdrawal agreement approved and signed Full renegotiation between the UK and EU No Brexit No deal
The UK government is currently negotiating terms with other political parties in Parliament to overcome the impasse.

Any agreement or alternative options would need to be voted on and ratified by the UK parliament, and then ratified by the EU and European Parliament.

Needs UK parliament to ratify. Also EU and European Parliament ratification. Will require a further extension of a longer period than another 6 months, and to grant this, all EU members must agree. The European Court of Justice has confirmed that the UK government can revoke the Art 50 notice to leave. This is the default outcome should the withdrawal agreement not be approved, and no further extensions requested or granted.
Negotiated changes might be made to the political declaration.

The EU repeat a lack of willingness to renegotiate deal; therefore it may be unlikely that EU will agree to changes made even if UK Parliament can agree a compromise.

No parliamentary majority available in previous 3 votes on deal. An extension to facilitate a full renegotiation might be agreed, particularly if a further constitutional step in UK has taken place e.g. a general election, triggered by a no confidence vote in the incumbent UK government.

Unlikely EU will agree to renegotiate as they have repeated that the current deal is the only one available.

Likely to require a second referendum which requires a parliamentary majority to vote for it.

The suggested minimum timeframe for referendum proposals to be approved and practical preparations to be made is 22 weeks

This is increasingly less likely the closer the UK gets to the deadline of the 31 October 2019, as a further extension would probably be necessary.

May involve 11th hour discussions to preserve 'minimum' necessary continuity (e.g. trains, airplanes, temporary right to remain for citizens).

Details may only become available shortly before exit and continue after Brexit.

Negotiations likely to be ongoing for the foreseeable future.

Scale and timing of impact are unclear, as negotiations have not yet reached a conclusion.

Transition period to December 2020. Likely to be extended to December 2022.

Backstop provisions likely to remain in place while future relationship negotiated (may be 2-10 years) or UK joins EFTA/EEA.

This is contingent on backstop provisions being agreed by House of Commons in further meaningful vote – the backstop was a key factor in the negative result of the meaningful votes.

Further extension required (perhaps 2+ years) and a new UK government desired to new negotiate terms. Reversion to pre-referendum EU membership terms. No Deal covers a wide range of possibilities.

Likely immediate impact. Opportunities may emerge more slowly. Practical discussions will continue post Brexit.

May not be time for all necessary Brexit legislation.

Future relationship/ trade agreement negotiations begin only when an outcome is reached. Future relationship/ trade agreement negotiations begin. Future relationship negotiations likely postponed. No further negotiations required. Future relationship negotiations likely to start on low trust basis.  May be long and not amicable.
Limited immediate legal effects.

On-going uncertainty on future relationship may affect economy.

Limited immediate legal effects.

On-going uncertainty on future relationship may affect economy.

No substantive legal effects.

On-going uncertainty on future relationship may affect economy.

No substantive legal effects.

UK may suffer a future loss of influence in EU.

Substantial changes anticipated.

The above scenarios only relate to the near-term outcomes up to and including October 2019. They do not concern future relationship or trade deals with the EU or other post Brexit opportunities. Any future relationship deals would only be approached after Brexit.

How will Brexit affect your business?

The implications of Brexit are far-reaching. We can help you understand how Brexit will affect your organisation.
Find out more