The following reflects a best available projection of likely impacts upon businesses following Brexit. It cannot be comprehensive, particularly as many aspects of Brexit remain unknown and unpredictable. However, businesses preparing for Brexit may expect some (or all) of the following:

The draft withdrawal agreement is approved and signed

An extension of time is agreed EU/UK

Political or public preferences result in Brexit being cancelled

The draft withdrawal agreement is not approved. “No deal”

Needs UK parliament to ratify after a further meaningful vote.

Also EU and European Parliament ratification.

All EU members must agree. 

EU Court has confirmed that UK government can revoke the Art 50 notice to leave.

Default outcome

No parliamentary majority available up to 29 March 2019.

EU willingness to renegotiate deal uncertain.  ‘Comfort’ statements not binding.

May not be sufficient time to revisit the deal without an extension of Article 50 process.

May be available particularly if a further constitutional step in the UK is imminent, i.e. 2nd referendum or general election.

Likely to require a second referendum. This will not be possible before May 2019 due to timescales to get referendum proposals approved and practical preparations underway.  Further extension probably necessary.

Some interim measures agreed, initially in transport and finance. May involve 11th hour discussions to preserve further 'minimum' necessary continuity (e.g. trains, airplanes, temporary right to remain for citizens).

Details may only become available shortly before exit and continue after Brexit.

Transition period to December 2020. Likely to be extended to December 2022. 

Backstop provisions likely to remain in place while future relationship negotiated (may be 2-10 years) or UK joins EFTA/EEA.

This is contingent on backstop provisions agreed by the House of Commons in further meaningful vote - the backstop was a key factor in the negative result of previous meaningful votes.

Period uncertain. Could be a series of small extensions or a substantial period of 12 - 24 months

Reversion to pre-referendum EU membership terms.

No Deal covers a wide range of possibilities.

Likely immediate impact. Opportunities may emerge more slowly. Practical discussions will continue post Brexit.

May not be time for all necessary Brexit legislation.

Future relationship/ trade agreement negotiations begin.

Future relationship negotiations likely postponed.

No further negotiations required.

Future relationship negotiations likely to start on low trust basis.  May be long and not amicable.

Limited immediate legal effects. 

On-going uncertainty on future relationship may affect economy.

No immediate legal effects. 

Uncertainty remains and may affect economy.

No substantive legal effects.

UK may suffer a future loss of influence in EU.

Substantial changes anticipated.

The above scenarios only relate to the near-term outcomes in April 2019. They do not concern future relationship or trade deals with the EU or other post Brexit opportunities. Any future relationship deals would only be approached after Brexit.

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