Following On: Sydney & Trent Bridge

England cricket fans were delivered a late Christmas present in the form of a 10mm MCG surface on Boxing Day, sparing English blushes and fears of a series whitewash. However, as we move to this Ashes series conclusion at Sydney, both sets of fans will surely be hoping for another late present of a five-day Test Match to welcome in 2026! 

Oscar: Cricket beats at the heart of Sydney, and nowhere is that pulse stronger than at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) – a stage for Ashes drama that has spanned series upon series.  From Steve Waugh’s emphatic last-ball century in 2003 to Shane Warne’s farewell Test in 2007, the SCG has witnessed moments etched into Ashes folklore. Each summer, the New Year’s Test draws interest from around the globe.  Just as the SCG commands reverence in cricket, Sydney’s real estate market itself stands as a powerhouse within both Australia and the Asia Pacific region.

Has the Sydney market lived up to its reputation in recent times, however?

In Q3 2025, the Sydney CBD office market recorded 36,100 sqm of net absorption, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of positive demand. Vacancy fell to 13.3% for core CBD assets, driven by centralisation and flight-to-quality trends, particularly among professional services and finance tenants.  Prime gross face rents in the core precinct rose 1.7% over the quarter to AUD 1,781 per sqm p.a., while incentives eased slightly to 32.9%, driving effective rental growth.[1]  Notable transactions in Q3 include 75 Elizabeth Street sold to Sydney Catholic Archdiocese for AUD 103 million, and GPT’s acquisition of a 50% stake in Grosvenor Tower for AUD 860 million.[2]  These recent transactions, together with strong reported interest in recent campaigns such as 1 O’Connell Street, reflect positively on appetite for Sydney office stock.  This moderate resurgence in transaction activity has seen prime yields remain stable at 5.63% - 7.00%.

Retail leasing activity remained strong, underpinned by a shortage of new supply and a pronounced flight-to-quality trend. Vacancy rates fell across all subsectors, with CBD vacancy dropping to 4.1% - its lowest since pre-COVID levels.[3]  Investment activity, totalling AUD 831.5 million across 11 transactions in Q3 2025, continues to benefit from sector tailwinds, as demonstrated by The JY Group’s purchase of a 50% stake in Bankstown Central for AUD 318 million and Aware/Barings purchase of HomeHQ Artarmon for AUD 180.5 million.[4]  Aggressive bidding for large, on-market assets such as Erina Fair suggests these tailwinds will sustain into 2026.  This activity has seen yields compress further in the sub-regional and neighbourhood sectors, tightening by 25 bps and 38 bps, respectively.  New developments include The Gables Town Centre and Hills Showground Village, adding nearly 19,000 sqm of retail space.[5]  Extensive refurbishments and redevelopments, such as 101 Castlereagh Street, Sydney Fish Market and Calderwood Village, continue to fuel Sydney’s retail pipeline. Rental growth was modest, with CBD rents flat and regional/sub-regional sectors up 0.5%.

Despite years of intense growth, the Sydney industrial market continues to witness robust leasing demand, with 318,857 sqm of gross take-up, being 29.8% above the 10-year quarterly average.[6] Vacancy fell to 5.0%, supported by strong activity in outer central west and outer south-west precincts.  Investment surged to AUD 1.8 billion, nearly doubling quarter-on-quarter, driven by portfolio transactions.  Sydney remains the preferred home for offshore capital seeking Australian exposure, as harmful foreign investor tax regimes discourage capital from jurisdictions such as Victoria and Queensland.  Prime yields compressed further, supported by major transactions such as the sale of 2-4 Park Rd, Rydalmere to Wentworth Capital for AUD 152.1 million.[7]  A notable pre-lease was Jennmar’s new facility in Smeaton Grange, consolidating 15 sites across a GLA of 31,000 sqm.[8]  Prime rents grew modestly in outer south-west (+1.4%) and outer central west (+2.0%) while incentives remained elevated, indicative of a competitive leasing environment. 

Sydney’s commercial property market remains resilient despite mixed economic signals. It continues to attract both onshore and offshore capital sources seeking Australian real estate exposure. Whether that attraction holds in 2026 in the face of interest rate reforecasts remains to be seen.  One thing is certain, however: the great interest and admiration that the 2026 New Year’s Test will draw.  Let’s hope the iconic SCG delivers a fitting end to this highly anticipated Ashes series.

Oli: This is it. This is the big one: the fifth test. And in terms of Ashes test ground venues, what could be a more dramatic setting? Sydney, you say? Never (it always rains at tests in Sydney, everyone knows that). No, it’s of course Nottingham’s very own Trent Bridge, and one of my favourite grounds and cities in the whole country. 

Boasting two professional football grounds less than half a mile away from Trent Bridge, and complete with England’s oldest surviving pub stretching back to 1189, Nottingham is truly a cultural and sporting mecca for cricket fans. Personally, I refer to it as the Paris of the East Midlands, but from the background research undertaken to write this post, that nickname sadly hasn’t caught on more widely. 

Trent Bridge has seen its fair share of Ashes dramatics in recent years. There was England winning by a nerve-shredding 14 runs to clinch victory on the fifth day of the first Ashes test in 2013, where debutant Ashton Agar had put Australia in the driving seat and with Australia chasing 311 to win, but, as England fans will fondly remember, when Jimmy Anderson was in the attack, there was always hope. With a mere 14 runs required, the Burnley Express found the edge against Brad Haddin, ensuring a memorable England win. 

For Anderson’s frequent partner in crime, Nottinghamshire local Stuart Broad, Trent Bridge was also a happy hunting ground. 2015 was the first time that the famous urn was won by England at Trent Bridge thanks in part to Broady’s 8 wicket haul on day one of the fourth test that summer. With Australia’s batsmen forced to battle hard to take the contest to a third day, by the 11^th over of the third morning Mark Wood took the final wicket of Nathan Lyon, winning the 2015 Ashes for England, queuing a celebratory victory flypast from the RAF’s Red Arrows over the ground. Lovely stuff. 

Moving to our last UK commercial property roundup in our series, in respect of the logistics and industrial sector in the East Midlands, given its proximity to the M1, the region continues to attract significant investment in this space, with the nation’s favourite retailer Marks & Spencer (the Joe Root of supermarkets?) taking a significant national distribution centre space in Q3 of this year[9], consisting of its 1.2 million sq. ft leasing of a cutting edge distribution centre in nearby Northamptonshire. 

Across the board in the sector, take-up exceeded 4 million sq. ft, the highest levels since COVID. But much like our review of Leeds’ commercial property landscape during our Headingly round-up, supply across the region is contracting fast, with supply falling by around 10% to 14.5 million sq. ft of available space[10] (around 10.8 million sq. ft being considered Grade A stock). 

In the mixed-use development space, Nottingham as a city is in the process of benefiting from a number of urban renewal projects. The standout being a mere walking distance from Trent Bridge, the City Ground and Meadow Lane: the city’s Island Quarter is a 32-acre mixed-use site with an investment value of around £1 billion, which will feature residential, student housing, hybrid working offices, along with retail and leisure outlets and a science and technology park[11]. Nottingham City Council have also recently approved plans from ALB Group to renovate the former Experian HQ at Riverleen House into 118 one bed apartments, due to complete in Q4 2026[12]. 

The above demand is underpinned by a consistent student population of around 75,000, thanks to the city’s two universities. A stable graduate population also underpins the city’s institutional build-to-rent offering, such as Grainger PLC’s ownership of the 348-apartment development The Barnum, located in the city centre on Queen’s Road. 

From an office perspective, Nottingham’s largest office letting post-COVID occurred in August, with the letting by Blackstar Advisory and Nottingham University of a Grade Two listed 31,172 sq. ft space in its Castle Meadow campus to Arden University[13], while from an out of town perspective, Nottingham Business Park continues to have a high take up of lettings (with three closing in the middle part of 2025)[14], thanks in no small part due to it being half a mile from the M1 and (presumably one would assume) less than a 30 minute drive to Trent Bridge. 

Score Prediction: 

Oli: Eight draws have been played at the SCG, but statistically this equally is England’s happiest hunting ground Down Under. Come on England, let’s finish the series with a win! 

Oscar: Well, who saw that reversal coming from the Poms in Melbourne?  England will be desperate to capitalise on their first Test win on Australian soil in 14 years and go back to back.  The Australians, on the other hand, will want to retain the Urn in style with a fitting win in the 5th Test.  Both nations can agree on one thing:  the desire to see a contest that goes the full length (or close to)!  Some customary Sydney rain should see that happen, and Australia should bring a far sharper performance with the bat after strong public scrutiny.  Australia to record a 100 run or six wicket victory, with Steve Smith claiming man of the match honours on his home turf.

There is no Ashes rivalry between Minter Ellison and Burges Salmon. If you’re interested in learning more on investing in commercial real estate or conducting M&A in the UK, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]