The Second Innings: Brisbane & Lords

It was Travball vs. Bazball in the First Test in Perth (or, as Cricket Australia could have remarketed it: an ODI double header) with Travball firmly in the driving seat. 

It remains to be seen at the time of writing if England’s top order lackluster batting would have benefitted from the two-day pink ball game against the Prime Minister’s XI in Canberra (which is presumably a resounding yes). With Pat Cummins said to be fit and ready to play, along with an already rampant Mitchell Starc, it could make for very uncomfortable watching for England fans if their openers do not repay the faith bestowed in them by England management. 

However, from an Australian perspective, what a start to the Ashes: it could be a summer to remember. And on a similar positive note, we move onto Brisbane, the hometown of both Wallaby great Michael Lynagh and the world famous “Gabba”. 

Oscar: Brisbane – the soon-to-be Olympic city – has played host to some of the greatest moments in Ashes history.  From Harmison’s infamous wide and Hussain’s lamentable decision, to Siddle’s birthday hat-trick and Starc’s first-ball wicket of 2021/22, the Brisbane Cricket Ground, affectionately known as the ‘Gabba', has delivered the highs and lows of Ashes cricket time and time again.  Despite these rich memories, the Gabba will step aside as the city’s premier cricket ground over the coming years, as Brisbane’s burgeoning infrastructure pipeline readies the city to accommodate the 2032 Olympic Games. 

The slated investment in Brisbane’s infrastructure has driven significant maturation in its commercial property market in recent times.

For the CBD office market, demand remains strong as Brisbane continues to defy national office attendance trends, with 24,800 sqm of net absorption recorded in Q3 2025.  Prime-grade space is leading the charge (3.8% vacancy), with tenants favouring quality over quantity.[1] The vacancy rate edged up to 10.6%, largely due to new supply, including the fully pre-committed 205 North Quay. Rents are climbing steadily, with prime gross effective rents now averaging $530/sqm.[2]  Prominent transactions in 63 George Street (QIC to Marquette Property) and 418 Adelaide Street (private to private) have seen yields stabilise for prime and secondary stock at 7.19% and 8.38% respectively – presenting a compelling investment opportunity for those able to marshal and deploy the capital.[3]  Major developments like 360 Queen Street and Waterfront Brisbane have seen healthy pre-commitments, reflecting confidence in office requirements despite broader economic uncertainty.

Retail continues to benefit from Queensland’s strong population growth and consumer spending.  Retail trade rose 5.4% year-on-year in August, outperforming the national average. While leasing activity has softened slightly, demand from food, wellness, and luxury brands remains robust. Vacancy rates are low across most sub-sectors (with regional centres at 0.8%) as development fails to keep pace with demand.  Rents are trending upward, particularly in regional and CBD assets, and investment volumes surged to $951.9 million in Q3, well above the long-term average.[4]  Signs of yield compression are showing as Brisbane’s retail sector capitalises on national momentum.  Prominent transactions in Logan Hyperdome ($678.7 million), Westfield Chermside ($683 million, 25%) and The Barracks (~$150 million) are demonstrative of such momentum.[5]

Brisbane’s industrial market is facing a more subdued patch after a stunning period of growth over the last 3-5 years. Take-up was 115,600 sqm for the quarter – below historical averages – and vacancy rose to 5.3%.[6]  Despite this, rents remain stable, with annual growth strongest south of the river.  Investment activity remains buoyant, with $773.8 million transacted in Q3 (rivalling Sydney volumes) and land values rising. Private investors continue to lead from the front in this regard.  Developers are shifting toward pre-leased and owner-occupied projects as speculative appetite moderates.

Brisbane’s fundamentals remain solid in the face of global uncertainty and bleak economic data.  Infrastructure investment and the 2032 Olympics are expected to support long-term growth.  Will the Gabba deliver that same level of reliability for the Australian XI come the second Test?  For a venue which has delivered Australia victory on 10 out of 14 occasions, together with England’s woes in the first Test, the answer must surely be ‘yes’. However, this is Ashes cricket – anything can happen. 

Oli: Next up, it’s the Home of Cricket: Lord’s, the traditional host for the second Ashes test series on English soil. 

Despite being ensconced in the leafy environs of St John’s Wood, Lord’s placid setting was, until relatively recently in Ashes history, a place of consternation for England’s supporters. 

For example, Australia took no prisoners during the 1993 second Ashes test, managing a mighty 632-4 before making England follow on, despite being without hospitalised bowler Craig “Billy the Kid” McDermott. England went on to lose the test, meaning they hadn’t beaten Australia at Lord’s since Hedley Verity’s England victory in 1934. Ouch. 

That 75-year wait for a first England win at Lords against Australia would finally come in 2009, with an opening stand in the first session of 196 between Andrew Strauss and Alistair Cook, putting them in a position of early dominance. 

England’s bowlers then pressed home the advantage, dismissing Ricky Ponting’s tourists for a mere 215 in the first innings. In the second innings, England set Australia a target of 522, with two days left in the field to bowl them out. 

By Day 5, it appeared the Lord’s curse would continue for England, with Australia needing a mere 209 more runs from the final day of play, however heroics from Swann and Flintoff ensured England’s long wait for an Ashes win at Lord’s was over, no doubt precipitating a collective sigh of relief from the MCC Long Room. 

As those who have visited Lords will know, it sits in close proximity to Central London, where the UK’s prime commercial real estate is located. Much like the England team of the 1990s at Lords, prime office space in London has taken a bit of a battering in recent times, firstly due to COVID, and then the adverse political climate, but much like a dogged tail ender, has proved to be remarkably resilient, with over 640,000 sq. ft. going under offer in August of this year alone, with the Insurance and Financial services sector leading demand for new premises, accounting for around 28% of all commercial office space let in the City of London and the West End during 2025. 

Similarly, akin to Bob Massue and Dennis Lillee tearing through England’s batting during the 1972 Lord’s Ashes test, London’s West End’s retail market is said to have lost around £300 million in the first half of 2025 due to a loss of tax-free shopping for overseas consumers. However, vacancies across the “Prime West End” (consisting of Oxford, Regent and Bond Street) remain materially below the long-term average of 7.4% vacancies and almost half of the 3.7% vacancies reported in Q2 2024, which however, does not seem to reflect widespread rental growth, with Savills reporting that due to global uncertainty and high-fit out costs, the appetite remains muted for occupiers to potentially bid on new opportunities[7]. However, much like Jofra Archer’s return to the England attack, there are reasons to be positive: with transactions such as Prada’s off-market acquisition of their store at 150 Bond Street and offices at 40 Bruton Street believed to be worth around £12,000 per sq ft overall showing the West End’s reliance and timeless appeal to both domestic and overseas luxury consumers. 

Score Prediction: 

Oli: I really fear for England in this test. Surely if England’s openers do not achieve a respectable opening total, then urgent mid-tour changes will be required. Australia to win convincingly by 5 wickets or at least 100 runs. 

Oscar: England will have their backs against the wall to arrest Australia’s early momentum and level the series 1-1. This assignment is made no easier by the daunting prospect of defeating Australia at the Gabba.  Unless England overhaul their batting style, I cannot see a pathway to victory for England at the Gabba.  Australia will win by 150 runs or 7 wickets.  Mitchell Starc will carry forward his scintillating form and cause havoc with the pink ball and, in doing so, claim man of the match honours.

There is no Ashes rivalry between Minter Ellison and Burges Salmon. If you’re interested in learning more on investing in commercial real estate or conducting M&A in the UK, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]