Are we on track to achieve the ZEV mandate?
11 Apr 2023
3 min read
The zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate provides for a staggered requirement for vehicle manufacturers to increase the proportion of new vehicle sales that are ZEVs, ultimately phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans completely by 2030. The minimum ZEV target for new cars sold begins at 22% in 2024 (and 10% of vans) – however, only 17% of new cars sold in 2022 were fully electric. A sea change is required to hit the 2030 target.
Some of the main challenges that the market will need to overcome to get on track are:
- Increasing the number of EVs will inevitably increase electricity demand, which must be balanced with generation coming onto the grid – and that generation must be primarily renewable in order to achieve an overall “net zero” impact. A flexible grid and smart charging capabilities may be necessary to avoid excessive demand at peak times. We previously wrote about the Government’s EV Smart Charging Action Plan.
- Manufacturers face challenges in procuring the necessary supply of raw materials in a sustainable manner. Shortages of lithium, a key battery component, threaten to undermine the EV roll-out across the UK and the EU. The EU hopes its Critical Raw Materials Act will shore up its EV supply chain by sourcing lithium and other battery components domestically.
- Lack of confidence and proven returns remains a challenge in funding the quantities of charge point infrastructure required, as discussed in our recent article considering what the Government can do to encourage private sector investment. As the Climate Change Committee concluded in its "Mission Zero" report, “government investment has a crucial role to play in funding R&D, major infrastructure, and incentivising investment in early-stage technologies that will be critical for the transition.”
The ZEV mandate forms a critical part of the UK’s commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, with the transport sector being responsible in 2021 for more than 25% of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Crucially however, the ZEV mandate only seeks to regulate the number of new petrol and diesel vehicles sold, leaving individuals free to choose what they drive in the second-hand car market. The willingness of drivers to voluntarily switch to EVs is perhaps a better indicator of whether the underlying goal of the ZEV mandate to decarbonise the transport sector will be achieved.
A survey carried out at the end of 2022 showed that there is still significant work to do to persuade drivers to ditch high emission vehicles completely, with 45% of the drivers surveyed stating that they would continue to use existing petrol or diesel cars post-2030. Although 55% were willing to move away from traditional fuels, only 21% indicated that they would switch to an all-electric car, with hybrid options being more popular.
The concerns raised by respondents in explaining their reluctance to transition to ZEVs echo the challenges described above, along with additional concerns around rising energy costs, the prohibitive up-front purchase price of a new EV, and battery range anxiety. These challenges and concerns will need to be addressed as quickly as possible if the UK is to achieve the ZEV mandate within the next seven years.
Infrastructure and energy to support the EV transition: where we are compared to where we need to be, what we have learnt and what the key blockers and enablers for success are, and more related topics, will be explored at the Interchange conference at The Vox, Birmingham on 18 and 19 April 2023 where Burges Salmon sponsors the Energy Hub.
"The ZEV mandate sets a clear path for 100% zero emission sales by 2035, providing much-needed certainty for consumers and industry. The question is no longer whether the internal combustion engine’s days are numbered, but how fast we get there."