The Third Innings: Adelaide & Headingley

They say Christmas is a time for hope, however, with Ben Stokes remarking after England’s latest defeat to a rampant Australia in Brisbane that the England dressing room is “not a place for weak men”, hope it seems around the England camp, is in short supply. 

However, on a more upbeat note, serious mid-tour changes now need to be made for England to avoid going 0-3 down in South Australia. Surely Jacob Bethell, waiting in the wings for so long, will be given his chance at No. 3? From an Australian perspective, will Usman Khawaja’s potential return to the side disrupt the now seemingly unassailable opening batting combination of Travis Head and Jake Weatherald? 

Oscar: Adelaide – the City of Churches, the gateway to the Barossa Valley, and home to one of the world’s most picturesque cricket grounds, the Adelaide Oval.  Despite its seemingly docile persona, the “20-minute city” has delivered some of the most thrilling moments in Ashes history.  From Bradman’s brilliance to pink-ball perfection, the Adelaide Oval has etched its legacy into Ashes folklore with unforgettable moments of dominance and drama – none more so than ‘Amazing Adelaide’ of 2006/07.

But does its local property scene similarly punch above its weight?

Adelaide’s commercial property market continues to show resilience across the office, retail, and industrial sectors, supported by strong economic fundamentals and steady occupier demand.

The Adelaide CBD saw a rise in headline vacancy to 15.7% in Q3 2025, driven by the completion of Theo Samaras’ 21,000 sqm speculative development of 50 Franklin Street (~6% pre-committed).^[1]  Net absorption for the quarter was 3,500 sqm, led by secondary grade space (2,400 sqm) and notable deals in John Holland Group (1,800 sqm) and NDIA (1,750 sqm) at 50 Flinders Street.  Prime gross effective rents rose 0.8% to $330/sqm p.a., with annual growth of 3.2%, while secondary rents increased 1.1% to $201/sqm p.a.  A-Grade and B-Grade incentives have held at 40% and 41.5% respectively.  There have been no major transactions of late, but investor interest is building, with prime yields stable at 6.75%–8.75% and secondary yields tightening to 8.25%–11.00%.^[2]

In terms of the retail space, leasing activity remains steady, with new openings in Rundle Mall and Burnside Village, including Tiffany & Co. and Paspaley.^[3]  No major retail transactions were recorded in the third quarter, with the last prominent deal being the Taplin Group’s $75.2m acquisition of the Coles-anchored Kurralta Village.^[4]  That said, ten deals totalling $494.9m have been recorded over the past year, led by sub-regional and regional assets, seeing average yields tighten 25 bps in 2025 – a testament to increasing investor demand.  Looking forward, assets in neighbourhood locations with convenience-based fundamentals are poised to outperform those with a discretionary goods focus. 

The industrial sector recorded 48,400 sqm of gross take-up in Q3, with DHL’s 20,000 sqm owner-occupier facility in Edinburgh a standout.  Annual completions reached 174,300 sqm, well above the 10-year average. Prime rents rose across several precincts, with Outer South leading annual growth at 19.4%.^[5] Investment volumes hit $142.8m in Q3, with the largest deal being Chep Service Centre Adelaide sold for $31m.  The city is continuing to ride the coattails of its largest-ever industrial transaction in Quintessential Equity’s landmark sale of the Port Adelaide Distribution Centre to Centuria Capital for over $216m at an initial yield of 5.92%.^[6] 

Adelaide’s market is stable, with improving sentiment and a pipeline of quality developments supporting long-term growth.  As a traditionally parochial market, its ongoing challenge is attracting and maintaining interest from institutional capital sources, which tend to favour its larger, eastern seaboard counterparts.  As for Ashes moments, however, Adelaide has no problem in attracting and delivering the best in history – all whilst doing so in its own unique, elegant style.  For Australia, let’s hope that brings a series-clenching victory come the third test. 

Oli: Leeds and the “Miracle of Headingley”: the synonymous image of what is widely considered one of England’s greatest ever Ashes victories being that of Ben Stokes raising his bat triumphantly, who, along with cult hero Jack Leach, pulled off one of England’s most improbable great escapes to draw the 2019 Ashes series 1-1. 

In order to draw the series level, England needed 359 runs in their second innings, having been bowled out for a meagre 67 in their first. 

Struggling at 286-9, it was down to England’s Ben Stokes who went on to score a heroic 135 not out, hitting a total of 8 sixes, joined by Somerset’s own Jack Leach at the crease, surviving for 17 nerve shredding balls and adding one run to England’s total, with the pair contributing the last 76 runs to secure the most unlikely of wins. 

So, is Leeds’ commercial property market more akin to Stokes and Leach’s epic 2019 last stand, or Zac Crawley’s average of 15.2 in the 2021-22 Ashes? 

For investors in commercial property and the wider market in West Yorkshire, they will be relieved to hear it is the former, with 2025 so far being a comprehensive all-round performance across offices, industrial and rental sectors that Yorkshire greats Joe Root and Adil Rashid would be proud of. 

In offices, take-up in Leeds across the first half of 2025 was 13% higher than the five-year H1 average, with Grade A stock contributing 61% of the total take-up. Stand out deals being the acquisition of Princes Exchange by Network Rail and two considerable lettings in the 8 storey Premium Grade A offices at Aire Park (a material amount of which is already under offer)[7]. 

Across the board, office occupancy in the city has risen to 75.3%, which is above pre-pandemic levels, and reflects Leeds’ position as a major transport hub for West Yorkshire and beyond. 

On the industrial side, the first half of 2025 bought in 1.7 million sq. ft of lettings, an increase of 41% on the first half of 2024 and the strongest first half performance since 2021. The largest letting of 2025 so far was completed by ID Logistics, consisting of the entirety of the 556,000 sq. ft Sherburn 550 warehouse, just east of Leeds on the A1 (M) and on one of the UK’s most strategic road routes, being 4 hours equidistant between London and Edinburgh[8].

Lastly, with standout employers such as Channel 4 (of 2005 Ashes coverage “Mambo No.5” fame) choosing to locate their national headquarters in the city, along with a consistent university student population of around 75,000, investors can achieve up to 7% yields in key areas of the city (Headingley being one of them), making it one of the most lucrative rental markets in the UK outside London[9].

Score Prediction: 

Oli: In the spirit of Christmas miracles, I’m hoping for an English one at the Adelaide Oval. Bethell’s inclusion at No. 3 will raise spirits, who will score a scrappy half century to secure his place in the side for the remainder of the series. Brook will learn from his mistakes from Perth and Brisbane, to secure a well needed century. England to win by 50 runs or two wickets. 

Oscar: Australia is on a roll after two convincing victories in Perth and Brisbane.  If England are to win, they will need to elevate their lion-hearted captain, Ben Stokes, to the number three position – he needs to underwrite England’s innings alongside Root.  Even if this change is made, I cannot see this being enough to halt Australia’s momentum, particularly at the Adelaide Oval with Australian stalwarts Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon set to return.  Australia will win by 200 runs or seven wickets, and Steven Smith will be judged man of the match after a first innings century

There is no Ashes rivalry between Minter Ellison and Burges Salmon. If you’re interested in learning more on investing in commercial real estate or conducting M&A in the UK, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]